The Market Down & Dirty

December 15, 2025                   

The Data

Equities were notably mixed last week.

• S&P 500 -0.57% Dow +1.05% Russell 2000 +1.23%, Nasdaq -1.62%.[1]

• The All-Country World Index declined -0.30%.1

S&P 500 sub-sectors were extremely mixed last week.

• Materials & Financials both gained over +2.35% to lead to the upside.1

• Tech declined 2% to lead to the downside.1

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 2% to end at 15.75.1

US Treasury bond yields were mixed last week.

• US 2yr -0.03% at 3.53%, 10yr +0.05% to 4.19%, 30yr +0.06% to 4.85%.1

• The yield curve steepened as short maturities yields declined while the longer end rose.

Commodities as an aggregate asset declined.

• WTI Crude declined -4.29%.1

• Gold rose +2.42%.1

The US Dollar index declined -0.61%.1

In our opinion, U.S. economic data was mixed last week.

• The Small Business Optimism Index ticked higher in the latest monthly reading.1

• The Leading Economic Index data showed a decline of -0.3% in its delayed release.1

• Job openings & jobless claims both increased showing the uncertainty as it relates to labor.1

An index of equities outside the US (FTSE All-World ex-US) gained +0.19%.1

Conclusion

Major equity markets were mixed last week as a significant rotation out of mega-cap and into nearly everything else seemed to pick up momentum.

• Small-caps and the Dow Jones Industrial Average led to the upside with gains over 1%.1

• The Nasdaq led to the downside with a loss of -1.62%.1

• The S&P 500 also declined -0.57% while the Equal-Weight version rose +0.70%.1

Since US stocks hit their near-term low on Nov. 20, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index has gained 11% while a gauge of Magnificent Seven companies posted half of that advance.1

• The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has outperformed its cap-weighted counterpart over the same period by over 2%.1

S&P 500 subsectors were extremely mixed last week.

• Tech led to the downside as future outlooks from AI bellwether’s Broadcom & Oracle led to some sizeable intraweek declines in companies tied to the AI infrastructure segment.

• Industrials also showed some solid performance last week along with Energy.

• Industrials were one of the better performers and have recently broken out to all-time highs.1

Interest rates were mixed last week as participants responded to the latest Federal Reserve meeting.

• The short end moved lower while longer maturities saw their yields move higher to the upper end of what has been a multi-month range.

• The difference (spread) between the shorter maturities and longer-term ones continue to widen from historic lows experienced over the last several years.

The Fed cut interest rates, as expected, as board officials showed some disagreement on this cut and the future path of interest rates.

• In projections published Wednesday alongside the rate decision, 6 of 19 policymakers indicated they would have left the benchmark rate where it was before this week’s cut to close out 2025.1

• The big debate in the US Treasury market over the extent of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts ahead is about to heat up with a string of pivotal economic data releases.

This week contains a large amount of data and events that could prove pivotal on whether Santa continues delivering for market participants or takes a pause.

• Tuesday will see fresh payroll data; Wednesday is a large expiration for VIX related securities; Thursday will see the latest CPI inflation figures and key earnings reports; Friday is the month options expiration.

• Our base case remains biased to the positive side of things heading into year-end as structural tailwinds remain in place.

• Yet downside risks cannot be ignored even if we believe they appear to be contained and largely priced in at this point.

Justin Greenhill - Chief Investment Officer – justin@sollinda.com 

Ryan A. Mumy, CFP® - CEO – ryan@sollinda.com 

Phone:  844/662-1211

[1] Source: Bloomberg – 12/12/2025