The Market Down & Dirty

November 24th 2025                          

The Data

Equities moved firmly lower last week as cross-currents in the economy & markets increased.

• S&P 500 -1.92% Dow -1.91% Russell 2000 -0.79%, Nasdaq -2.74%.[1]

• The All-Country World Index declined -2.38%.1

  
  

S&P 500 sub-sectors were mixed with no clear trend.

• Energy & Healthcare once again led to the upside.1

• Consumer Discretionary & Utilities led to the downside.1

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 18.31% and closed at 23.46.1

US Treasury bond yields moved higher last week.

• US 2yr -0.10% at 3.51%, 10yr -0.09% to 4.06%, 30yr -0.04% to 4.71%.1

• Fed member comments around uncertainty of more cuts seemed to weigh on yields.

Commodities as an aggregate asset moved lower.

• WTI Crude declined -3.54%.1

• Gold was lost -0.51%.1

The US Dollar index rose +0.87%.1

In our opinion, U.S. economic data was mixed last week as normal gov’t data started to flow.

• Consumer sentiment for November showed an overall drop in the index.1

• The NAHB housing market index increased slightly which remaining pessimistic.1

• The delayed jobs report for Sept showed and uptick in new jobs as well as the unemployment rate; the UR came in at 4.4%, its highest level in 4 years.1

An index of equities outside the US (FTSE All-World ex-US) declined -2.78%.1

Conclusion

Major stock indices moved lower across the board as the Nasdaq/Tech name led to the downside.

• The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Avg declined right under 2% while the Nasdaq led to the downside with a loss of almost 3%.1

• The small-cap tracking Russell 2000 declined the least at -0.79%.1

The biggest Tech names finally caught up to other momentum areas of the market.

• For weeks, the riskiest trades in finance — crypto, AI stocks, meme names, high-octane momentum bets — had been slipping.

• On Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 (100 biggest companies in the tech heavy index) sank 5% from their intraday peak.1

Doubts had appeared and have ramped up around the sustainability of spending on the AI/Tech Infrastructure theme and the profitability of these expenditures.

• Indirect beneficiaries of this trend whose share prices have soared this year were just the first to see downward price pressures over the prior several weeks.

• Unlike the Nasdaq 100 names that felt pressure this week, a lot of these downstream companies have never earned a profit nor are they projected to do so any time soon.

S&P 500 subsectors were mostly lower.

• Tech led sectors lower with a loss of over 5%.1

• Healthcare & Staples were the only positive sectors on the week.

Non-US equities followed domestic indices lower.

The US Dollar had a gain of +0.87%1 last week which put additional pressures on foreign shares.

Interest rates declined last week across the maturity curve.

• Risk-off trading in equities and major cryptocurrencies seemed to drive demand for USTs.

• The $30 trillion US bond market has been confined to a trading band in recent weeks as a lack of clear signals on jobs and inflation — complicated in part by distortions from the recent government shutdown — has divided Fed policymakers and made a third consecutive rate cut less of a sure thing.

On the systematic positioning front, various large institutional groups of investors have seen their trend and momentum signals switch to a negative reading.

• While the switch in of itself doesn’t mean anything, if these signals do not revert back to at least neutral, these large pots of money will start to act on these signals which could drive some significant selling pressures.

Friday marked the November monthly options expiration, where an estimated $1.9 trillion in open interest tied to S&P 500 linked contracts was removed from the market.1

• While not every expiration carries the same weight, we do tend to see major inflection points in the market show up around these events as old positioning gets cleared out and fresh positioning is rolled over.

• We will be watching closely as these traders begin to deploy this capital in fresh positions.

Justin Greenhill - Chief Investment Officer – justin@sollinda.com 

Ryan A. Mumy, CFP® - CEO – ryan@sollinda.com 

Phone:  844/662-1211

[1] Source: Bloomberg – 11/21/2025